At the start of the 2025/26 business year, global economic uncertainty prevails. This situation was triggered by tariffs imposed by the US administration on April 2, 2025, affecting nearly every economy engaged in trade with the United States. Although a 90-day suspension helped to stabilize the sharply declining capital markets, it has not calmed the real economy, which is adapting to increasingly unpredictable conditions. As a result, most economists have revised their global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward.
In addition to these macroeconomic effects, the voestalpine Group is directly impacted in the 2025/26 business year by tariffs enacted by the US administration on March 12, 2025, which target steel and aluminum imports into the United States. Based on current assessments, these tariffs are expected to have a negative impact on voestalpine’s earnings in the mid-double-digit million-euro range over the course of the 2025/26 business year.
Against this backdrop, any forecast regarding the company’s earnings performance for the full 2025/26 business year involves significant uncertainty.
Economic growth in North America appears to be slowing, but is expected to remain positive. Europe, after two challenging years, is also projected to see slight economic growth. The full impact of US tariff policy remains difficult to gauge at present. China continues to uphold its stated strategic growth target of 5%. However, if trade with the United States cools in response to reciprocal tariffs, achieving this target may become more difficult.
In voestalpine’s market segments, the economically sensitive areas of construction, mechanical engineering and consumer goods are expected to show largely stable performance at a low level, with a potential slight recovery toward the end of the 2025/26 business year. The railway infrastructure, warehouse & rack solutions as well as aerospace sectors are expected to continue their strong performance during the 2025/26 business year. Demand in the automotive industry is anticipated to remain stable at its current level.
The reorganization measures initiated during the previous reporting period should begin to contribute positively to earnings in the 2025/26 business year.
Against this backdrop, voestalpine AG’s management board currently expects EBITDA for the 2025/26 business year to range between EUR 1.40 billion and EUR 1.55 billion.